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Ares Commercial Real Estate Q4 2021 Earnings Preview – Seeking Alpha

Morguard North American Residential Real Estate Investment Trust (MNARF) CEO Kuldip Rai Sahi on Q4 2021 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

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February 19, 2022
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Morguard North American Residential Actual Property Funding Belief (OTC:MNARF) This fall 2021 Earnings Convention Name February 17, 2022 3:00 PM ET

Firm Members

Kuldip Rai Sahi – Chairman & CEO

Christopher Newman – CFO

John Talano – VP, Operations, US

Paul Miatello – SVP

Angela Sahi – SVP, Company Growth & Director

Convention Name Members

Lorne Kalmar – TD Securities

Khing Shan – RBC Capital Markets

Dean Wilkinson – CIBC

Operator

Good afternoon, girls and gents, and welcome to the Morguard North American Residential REIT Fourth Quarter 2021 Outcomes Convention Name. [Operator Instructions]. And as a reminder, this name is being recorded as we speak, Thursday, February 17, 2022. I’d now like to show the convention over to Mr. Rai Sahi. Please go forward, sir.

Kuldip Rai Sahi

And I’ll cross it on to Chris. Chris, do you need to do the introduction?

Christopher Newman

Thanks, Rai. And with me and on the cellphone as effectively are Paul Miatello, Beverly Flynn, Angela Sahi and John Talano. In order is customary, I am going to present feedback on the REIT’s monetary place and efficiency by way of our monetary place. The REIT accomplished the fourth quarter of 2021 with belongings amounting to $3.5 billion, increased in comparison with $3.1 billion final 12 months. As this was a results of the honest worth improve within the REIT’s income-producing properties of roughly $290 million.

The REIT completed the 12 months with $26.6 million of money available and $70 million superior to Morguard Company below its $100 million revolving credit score facility, offering the REIT with $170 million obtainable below this facility.

REIT accomplished the 12 months was $1.3 billion of long-term debt obligations. And in the course of the quarter, the REIT accomplished the refinancing of 4 Canadian properties, offering gross mortgage proceeds of $194.2 million at a weighted common rate of interest of two.72% and for a weighted common time period of 10.5 years. The maturing mortgages related to the refinance properties had a steadiness of a maturity of $74.2 million at a weighted common rate of interest of three.97%, leading to web proceeds of $120 million earlier than financing prices and any related tax payable on the redemption of the Class C LP items.

As at December 31, 2021, the REIT’s general weighted common time period to maturity was 5 years, a rise from 4.8 years at December 31, 2020, and the weighted common rate of interest decreased to three.31% from 3.45% since December 31, 2020. The REIT’s debt to gross guide worth ratio improved to 40.2% at December 31, 2021, down in comparison with 42.8% at December 31, 2020. The REIT’s IFRS web asset worth at $31.80 per unit at December 31, 2021, in comparison with the present market worth of roughly $19 displays a compelling entry level for buyers.

Turning to the assertion of earnings. Internet earnings was $245 million for the 12 months ended December 31, 2021, in comparison with $166.8 million in 2020. The $78.2 million improve in web earnings was primarily on account of a better honest worth achieve on actual property properties of $216.4 million relative to the achieve recorded throughout 2020. And was partially offset by a rise in honest worth loss on Class B LP items of $74.1 million, reflecting a rise within the REIT’s unit worth in the course of the 12 months. And likewise a rise in deferred earnings tax expense of $67.8 million, which correlated to a rise within the honest worth of the REIT’s U.S. property. IFRS web working earnings was $129.5 million for the 12 months ended December 31, 2021, a lower of $6 million or 4.5% in comparison with 2020. The change in international trade fee quantities to $4.8 million of the general $6 million variance to final 12 months.

And on a same-property proportionate foundation, NOI in Canada decreased by $3.3 million or 6.1%, primarily on account of increased emptiness, partly offset by progress in AMR. NOI within the U.S. elevated by USD 0.8 million or 1.2%, as a rise in income from AMR progress and decrease emptiness was partly offset by increased working bills, and the change in international trade decreased NOI by $5.3 million.

Curiosity expense elevated by $3.6 million for the 12 months ended December 31, 2021 in comparison with 2020, primarily on account of a loss on tax legal responsibility on the redemption of Class C LP items of $3.8 million and a lower within the noncash honest worth achieve on the convertible debenture conversion choice of $2.3 million. These are partially offset by a lower in curiosity expense, a curiosity on mortgages of $2.2 million, which was primarily as a result of change in FX, because the strengthening of the Canadian greenback decreased curiosity expense on U.S. mortgages.

The REIT’s 2021 efficiency translated to primary FFO of $64.8 million, a lower of $4.2 million or 6.1% when in comparison with 2020. And on a per unit foundation, FFO was $1.15 per unit for the 12 months ended December 31, 2021, a lower of $0.08 in comparison with $1.23 per unit in 2020. The lower in FFO per unit was as a result of following: on a same-property proportionate foundation and in native foreign money, a lower in NOI from elevated emptiness, partly offset by a lower in curiosity expense and belief expense, had a $0.02 per unit destructive impression, of which a profitable property tax enchantment in 2020 impacted FFO by $0.01 and a change within the international trade fee had a $0.055 per unit destructive impression.

A rise from the contribution of the REIT’s redevelopment property, 1643 Josephine, which reached stabilized occupancy in the course of the fourth quarter at $0.005 per unit constructive impression and a lower in different earnings, primarily from a wage subsidy obtained throughout 2020 in addition to a lower in curiosity earnings on the Morguard facility which was partially offset by a non-recurring write-off in the course of the prior 12 months had a $0.01 per unit destructive impression.

The REIT’s FFO payout ratio was 60.8% for the 12 months ended December 31, 2021, a really conservative stage, which permits for important money retention. And operationally, the REIT had common month-to-month lease in Canada elevated to $1,535 or 2.3% in comparison with 2020 and reflecting the standard of our Canadian portfolio.

Throughout the 12 months, the Canadian portfolio turned over 14.9% of whole suites and achieved 12.3% AMR progress on suite turnover. Whereas within the U.S., same-property AMR elevated by 6.4% in comparison with 2020, having a mean month-to-month lease of USD 1,519 on the finish of December 2021.

The REIT’s occupancy in Canada completed the fourth quarter of 2021 at 93.6% in comparison with 94.9% a 12 months earlier. Occupancy decreased in Canada on account of extended stay-at-home restrictions all through 2020 and within the first half of 2021, which disrupted regular leasing patterns because the administration of vaccinations continues to progress throughout the nation. And as restrictions are lifted, we started to see elevated leasing exercise and the variety of suites leased in the course of the third and fourth quarters of 2021.

Similar-property occupancy within the U.S. of 96.3% at December 31, 2021, was increased in comparison with 93.6% at December 31, 2020. Persevering with the constructive momentum skilled earlier within the 12 months as many of the REIT’s U.S. submarkets are outperforming pre-pandemic ranges.

So as to add, the REIT’s redevelopment properties, 1643 Josephine positioned in New Orleans, Louisiana, reached stabilized occupancy in the course of the fourth quarter.

The repositioned asset additional improves the general high quality of the portfolio, having an AMR of USD 1,842. Throughout the 12 months, the REIT’s whole CapEx amounted to $30 million. That included exterior constructing and revenue-enhancing in-suite enhancements. And we proceed to make sure we preserve the structural and general security of our properties.

Presently, collections stay robust because the REIT collected 98.8% of fourth quarter rental earnings and roughly 97.4% of January’s rental earnings, which is materially according to historic assortment charges.

Presently, I am going to flip the decision again over to the moderator for any questions.

Query-and-Reply Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first query comes from Lorne Kalmar of TD Securities.

Lorne Kalmar

Simply on the distribution, I believe you guys had a reasonably common observe document of accelerating it year-over-year. It seems like issues have largely stabilized. How are you excited about distribution will increase going ahead?

Christopher Newman

Sure, Rai, do you need to contact upon the distribution?

Kuldip Rai Sahi

Sure. I believe at this stage, we’re all being variety do improve a bit. I believe proper now, we’ll proceed to consider that, however I believe we have no plan to extend at this stage. We would think about subsequent quarter, however we’ll see how issues go.

Lorne Kalmar

Truthful sufficient. And then you definitely guys, it seems such as you now have a fairly a bit of money available. What are you excited about by way of deploying that capital? What acquisitions, debt discount? What are your ideas on that?

Kuldip Rai Sahi

I believe we’re trying extra — acquisition, we’re extra within the U.S. There’s actually nothing on the worth that they want to place. Properly, we proceed to look within the U.S. and see if one thing comes up, we’ll acquisition.

Lorne Kalmar

So would it not be honest to say that the acquisition atmosphere has gotten — I imply, how does Canada or it is Canada it is definitely gotten more durable within the U.S.?

Kuldip Rai Sahi

Really it is more durable in Canada. U.S., there’s nonetheless some availability. So there’s much more availability within the U.S. than in Canada. Canada costs have gotten loopy.

Lorne Kalmar

Sure. Sorry, I simply meant — I imply I do know it is not as unhealthy as Canada, however I used to be questioning when you noticed it trending that manner given a few of the pricing [indiscernible] it has been — or a few of the costs that [indiscernible] transacting at?

Kuldip Rai Sahi

Paul, do you’ve any touch upon ?

Paul Miatello

Sure, it is Paul. Sure, we’re positively seeing an uptick in pricing in main U.S. markets unquestionably. It is — I believe it is extra like Rai stated, there’s extra product obtainable, however there is a shortage of product relative to how a lot cash is chasing condominium product although. So — and we’re seeing — as you can see from our outcomes, lease will increase, which I believe is bringing in some non-traditional patrons.

And along with that, I believe we proceed to see some U.S. establishments recircling out of various asset courses into multi-res and industrial within the U.S., in order that’s additionally kind of compounding the issue. However sure, we’re observing increased pricing per unit than we’ve traditionally.

Lorne Kalmar

Okay. After which simply final one for me and no matter you can provide could be nice. Have you ever heard something by way of concerns of extra regulation for any of the potential Ontario authorities platforms with the election developing?

Kuldip Rai Sahi

Properly, the governments are going to what are they going to do? We nonetheless have rental software. I do not know what extra they’ll do. And we’ll simply proceed to observe it. there’s not a lot you are able to do. I imply the elections are coming, so there are — they will not be below stress. We’re additionally involved about municipalities are most likely due to pandemic are going to have a problem, and there would — there shall be some stress on rising the property taxes, which is able to negatively impression us. However nothing as of but, I assume?

Paul Miatello

No, nothing.

Operator

Your subsequent query comes from Jimmy Shan of RBC Capital Markets.

Khing Shan

Possibly if I might simply push you slightly bit on that — on the U.S. pricing that we’re seeing — it looks like we’re seeing truly fairly aggressive bid on Sunbelt belongings particularly. So I used to be curious as as to if you truly — are you attending to any bids in your belongings? Are you — would you be extra within the camp of being a vendor right here? Possibly some — what are your ideas?

Paul Miatello

Sure, it is Paul right here. Sure, we’re seeing unsolicited bids. It isn’t an uncommon factor within the U.S., particularly with what’s known as the 1031 trade guys, actual establishments will promote properties after which they need to purchase one thing to allow them to fulfill the necessities of the tax deferral. So it is a widespread factor. We’re seeing extra unsolicited kind of curiosity are available. In order that’s one other indication. So sure, Jimmy, we’re on kind of observe there. And sure, we’re maybe pruning belongings in 1 or 2 Sunbelt markets, however that is simply one thing that we’re contemplating proper now.

Khing Shan

Okay. And the unsolicited bid that we’re seeing, are these pricing — I imply, clearly, the truth that you are considering maybe pulling the set off on a couple of, you counsel to me that the pricing is kind of enticing maybe much more enticing than what you are advertising and marketing these belongings books.

Paul Miatello

It is enticing…

Khing Shan

I am main you a bit.

Paul Miatello

Sure. However sure, you by no means have a way of who. We by no means actually have a way of who the client is, proper? You are simply getting kind of stuff e-mailed and you do not know what’s actual, what’s not actual. So I would not actually touch upon that in any respect.

Khing Shan

Okay. After which on the Mississauga , these was once working at virtually 100% occupancy. So what do you suppose it takes for these belongings to return to that stage? Is it actually simply immigration and return to work. I puzzled when you’ve got any — to dig slightly deeper on what do you suppose a few of the drivers could be to get again to that stage once more?

Angela Sahi

I can take that one. It is Angela. So we’re truly — if we take the common of simply the Mississauga portfolio, we’re already at 96% occupancy in Mississauga, and we’re at 95% in Toronto, so together with Forklift Park. So we’re approaching — we’re making progress. And all of it, I believe you — as you acknowledged, immigration goes to be the main factor that is going to impression the occupancy. And actually, it is the one-bedroom suite that we’re discovering harder. They’re those which have a emptiness.

Our two bedrooms have been truly even capable of improve rents on our 2 beds. So it is actually these 1 beds, and the younger professionals, not a lot households at this level. So we’re ready for the immigration actually and simply workplaces and issues being again to regular.

Khing Shan

Okay. And what about — are there any concessions nonetheless within the market in the case of the 1 mattress?

Angela Sahi

Some incentives. There are some incentives within the market nonetheless I imply the variant was only in the near past one other lockdown. And so sure, the market remains to be providing incentives proper now, so we’re doing the identical.

Khing Shan

Okay. And what is the development? Is it about the identical because it was a couple of 12 months in the past?

Angela Sahi

Really much less. I believe we pulled again.

Khing Shan

Okay. Okay. After which sorry, final one for me simply on the U.S. I did see the leasing unfold on renewals and new leases within the quarter. I might need missed it, however when you’ve got that useful, that may be nice.

Christopher Newman

John, do we’ve that obtainable or…

John Talano

I haven’t got it available. And are you talking particularly concerning the turnover on new leases?

Khing Shan

Sure, turnover on new leases and that is the best way you are getting on renewals?

John Talano

Sure. So our turnover within the quarter on the brand new leases. And once more, that is only a snapshot of what occurred to turnover was north of 12%.

Khing Shan

Okay. Okay. And on renewals?

John Talano

Properly, the renewals on common, we’re — we’re effectively above pre-pandemic ranges. Relying on the placement, Chicago was mainly flat. Chicago and D.C. are mainly flat. And lots of of our markets, Florida was up 15%. Atlanta was up 13%. And most, each of our markets are up double digits, however we’re additionally being cognizant of our publicity and ensuring that we preserve our occupancies up with our renewals. So we’re very cautious about that and centered on occupancy, particularly via the winter. Once more, these issues decelerate, of us do not transfer out as usually within the winter months. And proper now, we’re pushing we’re pushing 96% occupancy and 98% lease. So we’re in an excellent place.

Operator

Your subsequent query comes from John Shi, Non-public Investor.

Unidentified Analyst

You reported a powerful honest worth achieve for the quarter and for the 12 months. In current months, there have been a number of acquisitions of U.S. multifamily REITs. And will you share your perspective on how your present IFRS property valuation compares to the valuations implied by these buyouts?

Christopher Newman

Sure. Look, we — general, our strategy to IFRS honest worth. Now we have — at Morguard, we’ve each appraisal ready internally annually, each quarter. Our value determinations are externally carried out on a cycle of three years on the U.S. portfolio. So we’re effectively lined in the case of the honest worth modifications from quarter-to-quarter. I do not know, Paul, is there something so as to add on with respect to form of the place the market is in comparison with coinciding with our precise IFRS values and the place we stand as we speak? I believe was a part of John’s query.

Paul Miatello

Sure. I imply I would not add an excessive amount of else each privatization acquisition of a REIT, it should be a special mix of various areas, completely different geographies. Our weighted common cap fee on the U.S. belongings is about 4.8%. And that is most likely mix of the whole lot from city Chicago to Texas to Florida, et cetera. So like was requested prefer it was advised earlier, I believe we’re seeing some premium bidding proper now primarily based on relative shortage of product in comparison with how a lot cash is chasing multi-res merchandise. So I do not understand how lengthy that lasts for, nevertheless it’s definitely peaking proper now. So I believe we’re clearly snug with our 4.8% cap fee primarily based on what we’re seeing available in the market for steady belongings.

Operator

Your subsequent query comes from Tenzing Lama, Non-public Investor.

Unidentified Analyst

I used to be simply questioning, in kind of the rising fee atmosphere that we’re all anticipating now, how are you kind of making ready for it? And when you might give us a way of to illustrate, you get one thing like about 150 foundation level improve in rates of interest by the tip of the 12 months. How does that have an effect on your adjusted funds movement in ’23, to illustrate, how a lot does it go down by?

Christopher Newman

Thanks. So we do not have a considerable amount of maturities upcoming. So in 2022, it is roughly about $66 million of principal maturing. That is within the U.S. at a mean fee of about 3.75%. So we — relative to that rates of interest within the U.S. most likely are between 2.5% proper now. So we do not anticipate a big impression on any refinancings upcoming. And even in trying forward 2 years as effectively, Canada, very small maturity developing within the U.S. There’s a little bit $120 million, however once more, the weighted common rate of interest is about 3.6% there.

So the impression from an rate of interest change might not be as extreme. I believe if we’re taking up extra proceeds which can be up financing the usage of these proceeds possible will offset any form of increased curiosity on principal quantities.

Operator

Your subsequent query comes from Dean Wilkinson of CIBC.

Dean Wilkinson

In all probability a query for Paul. Have you ever guys taken a take a look at what the price and/or the profit could be of doubtless hedging the FX or the residual money movement after debt service popping out of the U.S. simply to possibly take a few of the international foreign money translation off the desk? Or would it not simply value an excessive amount of?

Paul Miatello

Sure. We take a look at that commonly staff — and I believe — I do know you are a long-time follower all of Morguard corporations. So that you’re most likely conscious that the hedge guide has been closed for a while at Morguard as a coverage. The general publicity on — clearly, we have the U.S. greenback mortgages, that are the pure hedge and the general publicity on the U.S. fairness will not be that giant.

So we have seen issues go each methods the place you’ll be able to — you needed to lock in these charges, but when issues go the opposite manner, you will get burned. So it has been our coverage to maintain the hedge guide closed. And everyone knows the biases for charges to go up, like we get that. However on the identical time, it is very unstable and issues are altering. Issues are altering in a short time on this new world, proper? So — however we do analyze it commonly. So we’ll proceed to do this.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Gents, there are not any additional questions. I’ll flip the convention again over to you for closing remarks.

Kuldip Rai Sahi

Okay. Chris, do you need to add any closing feedback?

Christopher Newman

No, no. Thanks, everybody. It has been an excellent 12 months. So we look ahead to speaking to everybody subsequent quarter.

Kuldip Rai Sahi

Thanks.

Paul Miatello

Thanks.

Christopher Newman

Thanks, everybody.

Angela Sahi

Thanks.

Christopher Newman

Bye.

Operator

Women and gents, this concludes your convention name for as we speak. We might prefer to thanks for collaborating and ask that you simply please disconnect your traces.



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